Shanxi Fen Liquor (600809): Old Tree Sends New Sprout Fen Liquor before Departing

Shanxi Fen Liquor (600809): Old Tree Sends New Sprout Fen Liquor before Departing

Shanxi Fen Liquor (600809): Old Tree Sends New Sprout Fen Liquor before Departing

Nirvana was born again after three years of reform.

(1) Famous liquor is always a good stock for consumer goods. The track is also a high-quality asset for local governments.

Shanxi Fenjiu Real Control is the provincial SASAC. The concentration of equity in all liquor-listed companies is second only to Guizhou Moutai, and there is great room for fenjiu reform.

(2) The top-down reforms that started in 2017 really touched the core contradictions. By optimizing the shareholding structure, achieving the first overall listing in the industry, 北京夜生活网 and measures such as mixed reform of marketing companies, Fenjiu’s development has entered a new stage.

攘 Outside first settle inside.

(1) Shanxi market capacity is about 15 billion. The company’s output / terminal sales market share is 46% / 44%. Compared with other sub-high-end liquors in their respective basic markets, Fenjiu has an absolute advantage.

(2) The key to the expansion of Fenjiu ‘s expansion lies in the fact that the Shanxi market outside the base market is positioned as an open and semi-open market. Through continuous consolidation and resource accumulation of the base market, it is provided by the high-end brand southward.Sufficient resource output.

From a tactical point of view, the company uses targeted product lines to lay out the Shanxi and Huanxi markets, moving toward “holding the pattern, sinking channels and sinking brands.”

Kaijiang Tuotu two major grasps-product two-wheel drive superimposed channels and intensive cultivation.

(1) Bingfen took advantage of Qingxiang’s momentum, and asked for directions to pave the way for blue and white.

Consumers’ emphasis on cost-effectiveness, the rise of the concept of Qingxiang production areas, and the channel thrust of Bfen itself are all driving factors for Bfen to achieve rapid growth.

With the gradual strengthening of the synergy between Fenjiu and China Resources, the sales scale of Bophin is expected to open up more imagination.

(2) The blue-and-white quantity-controlling and quite-price-tree brand.

Above, the blue-and-white 30 adopts the model of full price control + volume control, and the channel’s basic favorable price accumulates thrust. In addition, the company has positioned the three dimensions to increase brand power through brand slimming and publicity.

In 2019, the value of Fenjiu’s brand has been the fastest in the country.

Looking into the future, the company intends to further promote the continuous and rapid growth of Fenjiu blue and white series by separating the blue and white series.

(3) In terms of channels, the company perfected the channel construction by first adjusting the structure, then spreading the price difference, and finally expanding the channels. We believe that the perfection of the channel profit of the Fenjiu channel structure is the smooth promotion of the national strategy of Fenjiu and the brand of FenjiuThe revival is ready.

Profit forecast, estimation and rating: Benefiting from the rationalization of the governance mechanism and the restoration of the brand’s potential energy, the company’s revenue is expected to maintain steady growth, and the company’s net profit for 2019/20/21 is forecast to be 19.



10 billion yuan, EPS is 2.



56 yuan.

Using the FCFF estimation method, the pricing price of Shanxi Fen liquor is 88.

61 yuan.

Based on the comprehensive absolute / relative estimation method, we give the company a target price of 87 yuan, corresponding to 30 times PE in 20 years, and for the first time, give it a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: severe economic fluctuations, fierce competition outside the province, food safety issues, reform ideas

China National Travel Service (601888): Daxing Airport Duty Free Stores Tenders Exempt Comprehensive Index Ranked First

China National Travel Service (601888): Daxing Airport Duty Free Stores Tenders Exempt Comprehensive Index Ranked First

Event: On March 8th, China General Tender Network announced the status of the bidding for duty-free business in the international area of Beijing Daxing International Airport.

The first year’s minimum guaranteed rent of $ 300 million and a 49% commission ratio ranked the first candidate for tobacco, alcohol and food, and at the same time it was 4.

The first-year guaranteed rent of US $ 1.6 billion and a 46% commission percentage ranked Xianghua. The first candidate of the boutique bidding section will be announced on March 11.

Comments: 1. China Exemption bids for the main duty-free shop of Daxing Airport, ranking first candidate in the two bidding sections.

The upcoming section of the Daxing International Airport Duty Free Shop is divided into tobacco, alcohol, food, and aromatization, and boutique products. Among them, the conditions for the successful bidding of China’s tobacco, alcohol, and food 无锡桑拿网 products far exceed the competitors’ deep exemption and pearl exemption.Yu Zhuwei, the bidders comprehensively considered technical and financial indicators.

In addition, the bidding samples for this competition are China Exemption, not the future, but it will not rule out that China Exemption will introduce relevant partners in the future.

2. The deduction rate is equivalent to that of the capital T2.

At China-Immigration Daxing Airport, alcohol and tobacco, the percentage of food standard commission is 49%, the flavoring, the percentage of premium standard commission is 46%, and the comprehensive deduction point is 47% -47.

5%, which is about 3 percentage points higher than the Capital Airport. From the profit situation of the first three quarters of the Capital Airport (profit margin 5%, pre-tax profit margin 6.

7%), the profit margin of Daxing Airport Duty Free Shop at this deduction level is about 2% -3%.

The guaranteed rent for Daxing Airport corresponds to 13 per year.

700 million, which is not difficult to achieve with reference to the current operating conditions of the Capital Airport.

3. As Beijing enters the era of dual hubs, passenger traffic at Daxing Airport will increase rapidly.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China initially issued the “Configuration Plan” and “Coordination Plan” for two games in one city, which clarified the transfer and operation plan of Beijing Daxing International Airport. Among them, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines-related flights, and Capital Airlines, China United Airlines transferred toBeijing Daxing International Airport; AVIC-related airlines, Hainan Airlines, Dah Sing China Airlines and other companies retain operations at the Capital Airport and complete the transfer within 5 years. It is estimated that the passenger volume of the Capital Airport will be 82 million in 2025 and the passenger volume of Daxing International Airport will be 72 million.
4. Double airports expand Beijing’s duty-free market, and Daxing Airport’s duty-free shops may contribute to profitability in 2020.

If the bid is won, Daxing Airport Duty Free Shop will be put into operation in 2020, which will contribute revenue.

In addition, the operation of Daxing Airport will cause a diversion to the Capital Airport, but the international passenger volume of the Capital Airport remains above 20 million, which will reduce the pressure on China Airlines to complete the guarantee. In addition, China Airlines is also expected to negotiate with the airport.

5. Investment suggestion: China’s first free bidding for Daxing Airport Duty Free Shop is relatively high. It may be under pressure at the beginning, but it is still expected to be profitable after mature operations. Two games in Beijing will help increase passenger traffic and expand the Beijing duty-free market. In the future,Landing stores in Beijing is also expected to ease the pressure on airport rents.

This year’s Haiwai exemption, the opening of stores in Haikou, the relaxation of tax exemption policies, and the loss of Hong Kong airport stores will ensure that China Travel’s performance grows. Investors are advised to choose machine configurations and enjoy certain growth opportunities under the policy bonus.

We estimate the attributable net profit to be 40 in 19-20.


6 ppm, corresponding to an estimated PE of 29x / 24x, maintaining the “Highly Recommended-A” rating.

6. Risk factors: macroeconomic risks; policy risks; opening of duty-free shops is not up to expectations

Escaping bank stocks: 600 shares of auction information have been surging in the year

Escaping bank stocks: 600 shares of auction information have been surging in the year
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!  Original title: Escape from bank shares. Bank equity distribution is turbulent. Source: 21st Century Business Herald.Most corporate shareholders want to clear the bank equity held in their hands, just because they sold out and bought them, and a large number of projects were delayed for listing.From the nature of listed banks, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks have become mainstream.Regarding the lack of interest in bank equity, some analysts believe that the downward pressure on the real economy in the past two years, coupled with the poor management of some small and medium-sized banks, lower yields, and some banks’ heavy burdens are important reasons.  The extension is still unanswered. According to the latest information from the official website of the Shanghai United Property Exchange, Qinghai Bank has 50 million shares (accounting for 2 of the total share capital.05%) is being listed for transfer, the transfer price is about 1.US $ 8.3 billion, the transferor is Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical, and the listed price is expected to be a minimum of 3.66 yuan.The project disclosure deadline is February 24, which has been postponed.  In addition to Qinghai Bank, the shares of Zheshang Bank are still waiting for new buyers.Traveler Motors Group is transferring its Zhejiang Commercial Bank13.4.7 billion shares with a transfer reserve price of 68.6.9 billion yuan, discounted by contract 5.1 yuan / share.The project was hung out on the eve of Zheshang Bank’s return to A listing.However, this price ranks the overall secondary market of Zheshang Bank.The closing price of 29 yuan, the premium amount reached 18.9%.  According to the disclosure of the project, the transferee is required to make a one-time payment.At the same time, according to the practice, as the advance transfer involves a change in the major shareholders of a commercial bank, the transfer puts forward a number of requirements for the qualification of the transferee.For example, the intended transferee becomes a shareholder or a shareholder that controls more than 5% of the shares or voting rights of a commercial bank, or holds less than 5% of the capital portfolio or share consolidation, but has a significant impact on the operation and management of the commercial bank.: Laws and regulations, regulatory requirements and articles of association, and explain the purpose of investing in a commercial bank; intentional transferees and affiliates, parties acting in concert as major shareholders must not exceed two, or the number of commercial banks holding commercial banksThe number must not exceed 1 (except for investment entities authorized by the State Council to hold equity in commercial banks, banking financial institutions, entities that are otherwise required by laws and regulations to invest in commercial banks, and investors with the approval of the CBRC to reorganize high-risk commercial banks)The intended transferee shall not transfer the shares held within five years from the date of obtaining the shares.  According to public information, Traveler Auto Group is a large-scale automobile integrated operator, and has participated in the shares of Zheshang Bank as the founding shareholder so far.Currently, the Traveler Motors Group is the second largest shareholder in circulation of Zheshang Bank.  In addition, commercial banks that are currently listed for transfer of equity include Kunlun Bank, Guangfa Bank, Yingkou Bank, etc.In fact, from a carding point of view, in recent years, the current concentration of equity transfer in commercial banks has been concentrated.  Dong Ximiao, a special judge of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, believes that the transfer of equity in commercial banks is a normal market behavior and has always been there, but in the past there was less public listing information and less attention.It is indeed increasing earlier. Many small and medium-sized banks have been involved in the allocation of new equity through the appointment of new shareholders, restructuring, etc .; the regulatory system has gradually improved the equity management of commercial banks, and many companies have failed to meet the requirements to withdraw, and a large number of transfers have occurred.”The reorganization of small and medium-sized banks in the next few years will definitely extend the merger more, and equity transfer will become the norm.”He says.  In the year, there were nearly 600 auction information. In addition to the equity trading center, Taobao is also one of the “landmarks” of bank equity auctions.As of February 19, on Taobao judicial auctions, as of now, there have been 564 pieces of information about bank equity auctions this year. On February 19, there were more than 60 pieces of bank equity auction information.Both were from Dandong Bank. Among them, Zhongan Jinyuan Hotel will auction 20.5 million shares of Dandong Bank at a reserve price of 1.At 27 trillion U.S. dollars, the Dalian Bonded Zone Longxiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. held an auction of 2020 million Dandong Bank shares at a reduced price, with a reserve price of 1.2.5 billion.  In an interview with a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald, a person in charge of a western stock company said that the reason why bank equity is small is mainly because the economy in some areas is underdeveloped, and local banks have more bad debts and more burden.”Some of our economy here is mainly sustainable resources, and the price of resource goods has become an important symbol of any corporate profit.At present, the prices of some resource products are still sluggish. Of course, the life of resource companies is not good. Some of these companies’ loans have become bad for banks.And banks’ estimates are generally based on net assets, but many of the more qualified and more transparent listed banks have fallen below their net assets, so it is really difficult to attract investors based on their net asset estimates.”It is reported that a western rural commercial bank has been listed for nearly three years and 杭州桑拿网 has not been closed.The well-known economist Song Qinghui is even more blunt. Bank equity is not inferior to other companies, and those poorly managed banks may have low stock prices and difficult to sell.

New City Holdings (601155): The top ten scale and profit symbiosis in the industry

New City Holdings (601155): The top ten scale and profit symbiosis in the industry

Event: The 2018 annual report disclosed by the company, the cumulative contract value is about 221.1 billion, an increase of about 75% in one year, exceeding the sales target of 180 billion in 2018, and the top ten in the industry sales segment.

The company’s sales target for 2019 is 2700 trillion, with a target growth rate of more than 20%.

The company’s operating income in 2018 was 54.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 34% year-on-year; net profit attributable to its mother was 104.

900 million, an increase of about 74% in the same period, revenue and sales have achieved growth, high growth continued to highlight.

The company’s gross profit margin is 36.

7%, with a net profit of 22.

6%, average average return on equity is 41.

9%, are in the leading position in the industry.

In terms of commercial real estate, the company achieved rental and management fee income in 201821.

1.6 billion, an increase of 107% in ten years, with an average occupancy rate of 98.


In 2019, the company plans to open 22 new Wuyue Plazas with a total revenue of more than US $ 4 billion and continue to maintain rapid growth.

Excellent land-holding ability and balanced national distribution.

In 2018, the company added land storage surface 4473.

240,000 countries, 2 of the area sold in the same period.

6 times, the amount of land taken is 1,112 trillion, which is about 50% of the sales amount in the same period.

The company’s total soil reserves exceed 100 million cubic meters, exceeding the company’s sales requirements for the next three years.

The average floor price is 2,330 yuan / square meter, which is only 19% of the average selling price at the same time. The company’s “two-wheel drive” strategy effectively reduces the cost of land acquisition and ensures that the company’s profitability remains high.

Net operating cash flow turned positive and net debt ratio decreased.

The company’s net cash flow from operating activities in 2018 was 38.

1.7 billion, positive.

Net corruption coefficient 49.

21%, down 18 units from 2017.

The company actively expands various financing channels, and the overall average financing cost is only 6.

47%, which is at a low level among private housing companies, and it is a rare event in 2018 to deleverage and tighten financing channels.

The company’s dividend payout ratio reaches 32.

1% for two consecutive years, maintaining a dividend level of more than 30%.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

The EPS is expected to be 6, 2019, 2020 and 2021.

3 yuan, 8 yuan and 9.

8 yuan.

The current contradiction corresponds to a PE of 5 in 2019, 2020 and 2021.

8 times, 4.

5 times and 3.

7 杭州夜网论坛 times.

Risk warning: industry policy adjustments continue to tighten; monetary policy tightens faster than expected.

Hengrui Medicine (600276): The business trend continues to lead the big era to a good variety

Hengrui Medicine (600276): The business trend continues to lead the big era to a good variety

This report reads: The report’s long-term company’s main business maintains a rapid growth trend, the upward trend of operations continues, innovative drugs drive the local advantages of the tumor field to continue to expand, the internationalization strategy accelerates, and the overweight rating is maintained.

Investment Highlights: Maintain “Overweight” rating.

The company announced that the operating income of 2019H1 was 100.

2.6 billion, net profit attributable to mother 24.

1.2 billion, net of non-attributed net profit22.

89 ‰, an increase of 29 per year.

19%, 26.

32% and 25.

21%, performance is in line with expectations, the upward trend of operations continues, R & D expansion continues to increase, maintaining 2019-2021 earnings per share forecast1.



03 yuan, considering the upward movement of the estimated A-share center, the company’s heavy-weight varieties have made rapid clinical progress and raised their target price to 94 (+13).

5) Yuan, corresponding to PE58X in 2020, maintaining an overweight rating.

Core business growth was in line with expectations.

Report core company revenue of 100.

2.6 billion, an increase of 19 years.

19%, we expect the tumor segment and imaging business to maintain rapid growth, of which the new products albumin paclitaxel and pirlotinib have contributed significantly.

The sales expense ratio and management expense ratio remained the same as last year, and the R & D expenses increased by 49 per year.

13%, sustained high intensity consumption.

The heavy-duty varieties are leading the way, and the innovation layout is becoming more and more perfect.

The company has completed the local imitation innovation, the combination of international imitation innovation and the transformation of innovation, and Karelizumab has begun to go on sale.

With regard to the expansion of major indications, the second-line 武汉夜网论坛 liver cancer indications have been declared on the market, and the phase III trials of first-line dialysis and esophageal cancer have reached the end point, and they are leading in the expansion of domestic PD-1 major indications.

Remazolam enters a priority review and is expected to be approved this year.

PD-L1 enters phase III. The company’s innovative R & D pipeline has formed a better product listing echelon. In the future, it is expected that 2-3 innovative drugs will be listed each year. The successive listing of heavy varieties is expected to drive the company into a new round with innovation as its core driving force.Rapid development period.

Catalyst: The company’s innovative drug progress exceeded expectations, and the company’s performance exceeded expectations.

risk warning.

Uncertainty risks in the 杭州桑拿 development of new drugs; increased competition in the industry.

Limin Shares (002734): Create a Comprehensive Pesticide Enterprise with Weiyuan

Limin Shares (002734): Create a Comprehensive Pesticide Enterprise with Weiyuan

Protective fungicides are irreplaceable in resistance management.

In 2017, global fungicides reached billions of dollars, and even new high-efficiency fungicides were continuously developed, but they still could not solve the problem of resistance. Traditional protective fungicides such as Daisen and chlorothalonil were unique in their resistance management.Advantages, as well as the advantages of a wide range of applications and mature production processes, these old varieties still play an irreplaceable role. At the same time, due to the increase in environmental protection approvals, new entrants are replaced, the supply and demand layout is improved, and the future market space is expected to stabilize.There are liters.

  The company’s main products have a high market share and obvious competitive advantages.

The company’s main product capacity and market share are at the forefront of domestic 深圳桑拿网 production. Among them, mancozeb, carbamide, toluidine, and aluminum triethoxylate have the largest scale, chlorothalonil has the largest global production capacity, and strong product pricing capabilities.In addition, the company has strong competition in the same product quality and average gross profit margins. At the same time, the company has established long-term and stable cooperative relationships with domestic and foreign high-quality pesticide companies such as DuPont, Syngenta, and Nuopuxin, which is the basis for the company’s stable business growth.

  Work with Weiyuan to build a comprehensive pesticide company.

The company’s proposed joint Xinrong investment, Xinwei Investment purchased 100% equity of Weiyuan Asset Group held by Xinao Shares in the form of cash payment, of which Limin’s equity was transferred.

Weiyuan 无锡桑拿网 owns superior products such as abamectin and metavidin in the field of insecticides, glufosinate in continuous gas phase process in the field of herbicides, and tiamulin and ivermectin in the field of veterinary drugs.It can improve the company’s product gaps. At the same time, Weiyuan has perfect sales channels and industry reputation. After the merger, it can achieve channel sharing, diversion and improve the company’s comprehensive competitiveness.

  Earnings forecast and investment grade: Regarding Weiyuan’s consolidation for the time being, we expect the company to be in 2018?
Net profit attributable to mothers in 2020 is 1.



29 trillion, an increase of 42 each year.

6%, 35.

1%, the corresponding EPS is 0.



16 yuan.

The injection of the Weiyuan asset group will greatly complement and improve the company’s product structure, and improve its technical level and sales channels. We believe that the company’s total market value and estimates are underestimated, and we are optimistic about the company’s continued growth under the strong-strong combination model.The company is given a target price of 19 yuan, covering for the first time, and given a “buy” rating.

  Risk Warning: The construction progress of the new project is less than expected, Weiyuan’s performance release is less than expected, the price of raw materials changes, the risk of safe production, and the risk of exchange rate changes.

Baolong Technology (603197) Quarterly Review: High R & D and Management Expenditure Erosion of Profits and Optimistic Results Growth

Baolong Technology (603197) Quarterly Review: High R & D and Management Expenditure Erosion of Profits and Optimistic Results Growth

Performance summary: operating income in the first quarter of 19

3.8 billion yuan, an increase of 25 over the same period last year.

98%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 3489.

470,000 yuan, a decrease of 29 from the same period last year.


  Huf, Pex consolidated replacement endogenous replacement, high revenue growth.

The first quarterly report supplements the scope of consolidation, one is the German TPMS leader Huf, and the other is Pex Sensors, with a total of about 2 billion in revenue.

Excluding consolidation factors, endogenous revenue growth was about -10%, slightly better than the size of auto production in the first quarter.

In addition, due to the reduction of the bill of exchange in 19 years, the delay in invoicing caused by the OEM caused some revenue recognition. It was necessary to delay the recognition of revenue until April to May. Taking into account the company’s delayed invoicing 杭州夜网论坛 factors, the decline in endogenous revenue further increased.

  R & D and management costs are high, and net profit attributable to mothers is slightly lower than expected.

The number of reports indicates that the growth rate of net profit attributable to the mother is not as fast as the growth rate of revenue due to two reasons: 1. Management costs plus research and development costs are as high as 1.

1 trillion, actually more than 0 in the same period last year.

56 ppm was due to the company’s increased R & D investment and value-added rate, and the consolidation of pex and DiLL; 2. The shift in domestic product input dragged down gross profit margin, and the gross profit margin decreased by 1.

The 52 averages are 31.


In the short term, the company’s annual decline is better than expected. The reduction in raw material costs will increase profits, and the car market will rebound in the second half of the year. The company will gradually increase its net profit and still achieve growth. We believe that it is possible to achieve a fair incentive goal.

  Car electronics have blossomed, and vehicle cameras and millimeter-wave radars will enter mass production.

The company is a very well-known R & D company, and the R & D expense ratio in 18 years was as high as 5.

8% is a veritable technology company. The company vigorously develops expanded millimeter-wave radar and 360 surround view products that are about to enter the mass production stage.

Automotive cameras are equipped with Geely. Several models of FAW will be mass-produced this year. At the same time, new fixed-point projects are increasing at the same time. Millimeter-wave radar prediction is the first to land in commercial vehicle customers. We are optimistic about the company’s development prospects in the field of intelligent driving.

  Profit forecast and grade: It is estimated that the growth rate of net profit in 2019-2021 will be 42.

8%, 40.

4% and 17.

1%, EPS is 1.

32, 1.

86 and 2.

18 yuan, give a “buy” rating.

  Risk warning: domestic car market is worse than expected; Sino-US trade war intensifies

Huaxia Happiness (600340): Excellent financing ability and look forward to in-depth cooperation with Ping An

Huaxia Happiness (600340): Excellent financing ability and look forward to in-depth cooperation with Ping An

Event: The 2018 annual report released by the company achieved revenue of approximately US $ 83.8 billion, an increase of 41%; net profit attributable to mothers was approximately US $ 11.7 billion, an increase of 33%.

The results are initially settled, and rich results will be released in the future.

In 2018, the company’s operating income continued to grow at a high speed, of which the residential business contributed revenue of 51.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 78%, and its proportion rose from 49% to 62%. Benefiting from the hot markets around Beijing in 2016 and 17, the gross profit margin of the residential businessRising to about 30%, with an annual increase of 7.

46pct; The gross profit margin of the industrial new city is 65%, which contributes 55% of the overall gross profit. The unique business model can bring its sustainable high profits.

The company has 137.5 billion prepayments in hand and 34.1 billion receivables in hand, accounting for 65% of its aging within one year. The future performance is highly certain.

The new industrial city is deployed in the core urban circle of the country, and the expansion in different places continues to accelerate.

In 2018, the company’s industry signed a new investment of 1,660 trillion, added 18 new industrial cities, and gradually developed a total of 77. It has achieved a comprehensive layout of the 15 core metropolitan areas in the country; a total of 20 new industrial cities have gradually realized a positive net cash flow.That is, it has entered a mature operating period. Nine of them are in non-Beijing areas, 北京夜网 which is a breakthrough from the two in 2017.

Benefiting from the national layout of the new industrial city, the residential business outside the Beijing area has also grown rapidly, completing approximately $ 56.5 billion in 2018, an increase of 93%, accounting for 24.

36% rose to 43.


With the gradual landing, development and maturity of the company’s many new industrial cities, the foreign port area will become an important performance growth point of the company in the future.

Working together with Ping An, debt structure optimization, new positioning and new trends are worth looking forward to.

After two rounds of share increase, Ping An of China has become the company’s second largest shareholder, holding 25 shares.


Ping An’s franchise has improved the company’s debt structure and improved cash flow. The total financing amount was 139 billion US dollars, of which the debt ratio fell from 31% to 19% within one year, and the long-term and short-term debt ratio decreased from 2.

3 times to 4.

2 times; quarterly operating cash flow is positive for three quarters, and net cash flow from financing activities also achieved a single quarter net inflow in Q4.

In the future, the company is expected to further combine its respective advantages with Ping An of China to achieve new breakthroughs in the development and operation of commercial real estate, new real estate and real estate financialization.

Maintain the company’s BUY rating. It is estimated that the EPS for 2019, 20 and 21 will be 5 respectively.

09, 6.

31, 8.

24 yuan, corresponding PE is 6.

3 times, 5.

1x, 3.

9 times.

Risk warning: slow progress in new industrial areas in outlying areas

Investment plunged 80%: the cold winter of the venture capital industry under the epidemic is even colder

Investment plunged 80%: the cold winter of the venture capital industry under the epidemic is even colder

Original title: Investment volume plummeted 80%!

Under the epidemic situation, the cold winter of the venture capital industry has become even colder. Source: Panoramic Finance’s sudden epidemic has made the “cold winter” of the Chinese venture capital industry colder and gradually.
.....  From 2018 to 2019, China’s venture capital industry is experiencing two years of “fever fever”. Investment institutions have closed the fundraising and exited the dilemma.

After two years of reshuffle and calm, a large number of investors define 2020 as the “year of inflection point”, and it is expected that the venture capital industry will bottom out and pick up.

  However, the epidemic that started before the Spring Festival made the “cold winter” even colder, which made all investors unexpected: almost all proposed investment projects clicked the “pause button”, the fundraising plan was stranded, and the venture projects invested were in danger.Exit channels such as IPOs are suspended . The cold winter of the primary market is being forced to extend.

  ”The amount of funds raised this year and the growth rate in 2019 will definitely be significantly reduced. Many GPs (general partners / managers) are actually unable to raise money, and the cold winter of the venture capital industry will definitely continue.

“Chen Wei, chairman of Oriental Venture Capital, a well-known venture capital firm, said that it is recommended that startups make at least 3-6 months of the worst plan,” the most important thing is to survive. ”

  However, the crisis process is accompanied by the peers. Under the epidemic, the new economy represented by fresh e-commerce, remote office, online medical care, online education, etc. has suddenly ushered in the wind, and the venture capital institutions that have been deployed in advance must be cold”Luck” on the extension line.

  Fund-raising and investment are all funded according to the “pause key”. Investment, post-investment management, and exit are a complete life cycle of the venture capital industry.

  Let’s start with fundraising. According to the Wind database, the number of funds raised by Chinese venture capital institutions in 2019 is only 602, and the funds raised are about 2317.

3.6 billion, almost a cliff-like decline.

  In 2018, the number of newly raised funds exceeded 2,400, and the total amount of funds raised was as high as 11,508.

700 million; in 2017, it was 3751 and 11040.

200 million yuan.

Even in 2010, this number was 710, 3142.

900 million yuan.

  This means that the scale of funds raised by venture capital institutions in 2019 exceeded the decline by more than 84%, and the number of newly raised funds also fell by nearly 80%. The problem of difficulty in raising funds for the Chinese venture capital industry continues.

  Money is getting tighter, and venture capital institutions are becoming more cautious and critical of investment projects.

According to the Wind database, in 2019, the cumulative number of projects invested by venture capital funds was 5,692, and the cumulative investment amount was only 6,781.

3 ppm, an average annual rate of nearly 50%.

  From fundraising to investment, the venture capital industry has undergone a cold winter shuffle.

Before the outbreak, a large number of investors predicted that 2020 might be a year of bottoming out, and the data scale also showed a rebound.

  According to Wind data, in January 2020 alone, China’s venture capital funds completed an investment of US $ 115.5 billion, an increase of more than 50% from the previous quarter.

  However, the sudden outbreak stopped the rally abruptly.

As of the 21st, the investment amount completed in February 2020 was only 81.

2 trillion, only 79 investment cases, the venture capital industry has almost suspended foreign investment projects.

The amount of investment completed in February last year was 426.

500 million US dollars, the number of investment cases exceeded 380 cases, a decline of more than 80%.

  Zhao Yangbo, vice president of investment of Qilu Capital, said that the new investment projects have basically been suspended. During the epidemic prevention and control, new investment projects are difficult to advance because there is no way to do in-depth offline communication or even enter DDSurvey), the main intensity will be put on the post-investment.

  All kinds of evidence show that the epidemic is prolonging the cold winter of the venture capital industry.

Military and Thai joint ventures have conducted a study of 40 investment institutions, and about 50% of investors have stated that they will continue to maintain a contraction strategy based on 2019.

  Faced with the passive shrinkage of investment plans of venture capital institutions, perhaps the saddest is the startup companies waiting to be fed.

  Since February 2020, a number of entrepreneurs have reluctantly stated that due to the suspension of the funds raised by the new fund, some venture capital institutions have issued notices to them to suspend capital injection, which has further reduced the necessary state of funding for enterprises.

  Start-up companies that have experienced a crisis in the capital chain are mainly offline education, catering, tourism, retail and other industries. Affected by the epidemic, business operations have almost stopped, cash flow is almost zero, surrounded by survival, once failed to survive, venture capital institutionsInvestment projects will also end in failure.

  The planned IPO project has also been suspended. In addition to raising funds, another major source of funding for the venture capital industry is the project exit.

Prior to the outbreak, investment institutions with rich projects in their hands had high expectations for the exit side in 2020.

  At the end of 2019, Xiao Bing, CEO of Dachen Venture Capital, had predicted that in 2020, it would be the historical peak period for venture capital project exits. Under the healthy competition of science and technology board and GEM registration system, the number of IPO projects in 2020 will acceleratevery fast.

For venture capital institutions with sufficient project reserves in their hands, it will be a very good news.
  However, this expectation may be delayed.
Affected by the epidemic, the IPO progress in 2020 is ongoing.

  According to Wind data, more than 133 companies ‘listing applications in Hong Kong are being processed, and 159 companies’ listing applications have not progressed, and due to the impact of the epidemic, many companies have chosen to replace the listing plan.

  At the same time, the A-share IPO issuance review meeting has been suspended for more than 30 days.

On February 13, 2020, the number of companies in the IPO queue was 428 (excluding the science and technology board), including 161 main boards, 79 small and medium-sized boards, and 188 GEM boards.

  In addition, affected by the epidemic, sponsors, and audit institutions’ IPO counseling work is also expected to be replaced, and the IPO progress of companies planning to list in 2020 will follow.

  However, it is worth mentioning that the issuance of new shares has been affected by the epidemic again. The CSRC has approved the IPO approvals of eight companies for three consecutive weeks.

At the same time, since February 3, 18 new shares of A shares have been successfully listed.

  Although the IPO counseling and review of business progress has been temporarily affected by the epidemic, it is not yet possible to determine the overall IPO rhythm in 2020.

  Looking back at the SARS epidemic in 2003, according to wind data, a total of 68 new shares were issued and listed in 2003, the same as in 2002, and 50 new shares have been listed after June 2003, and the end of the fight against the SARS epidemic was in 2003.May each year.

  This means that after the end of the SARS epidemic, the progress of A-share IPOs has accelerated significantly.

  BOCI Securities expects that initial public offerings will improve in the first half of 2020, but with reference to the acceleration of initial public offerings after the end of the SARS epidemic in 2003, combined with the overall reform of the internal A-share registration system, the general background of direct financing ratios has been raised, so the amount of funds raised isWill fall.

  It is foreseeable that under the epidemic, the pace of quitting venture capital projects seems to have been delayed and will not cause it.

  But for specific investment projects, the test brought by the epidemic will be more severe.

The operation and financial status of some startups may be affected by the epidemic, and the project is expected to shrink, and the IPO will fail. This will also test the venture capital institutions’ post-investment management capabilities.

  At present, the support given by most institutions is mainly focused on the docking of industry resources and sorting out local support policies.

In addition, support is provided in terms of cash flow.

  According to Dachen Ventures, all investees are required to report the latest situation every week, monitor closely, pay attention to project risks, and provide the think tank and support for the investees with the resources of the Dachen Ecosystem.Classes, live sharing, etc.

  Under the epidemic, they have become a “lucky” crisis. They have always been with them. In every dangerous conflict, new opportunities have emerged against the trend.

  The outbreak was no exception.

The epidemic situation is controlled by the entire national defense, offline life, and the consumption scene is pressed with the “pause button”, while online medical care, online education, fresh e-commerce . ushered in the wind.

  Oriental Weihai Chairman Chen Wei said that the epidemic will have a certain impact on the pace of investment in the first half of 2020, but 2020 may be a “good year” worth investing in.

  Taking online medical care as an example, the epidemic has swept the country, offline medical resources are tight, and the risk of hospital infection is high, so the demand for online medical consultations has exploded.

Among them, Ping An Good Doctor APP registered users increased by nearly 10 times, and the number of conversion visitors during the epidemic was as high as 11.


  In addition, the number of registered users of Baidu “Ask Doctor”, Dr. Chunyu, Dr. Elephant, Dr. Lilac, Medical Union, Dr. Penguin, Weiyi, and Good Doctor all increased geometrically.

  Hu Xubo, a leading partner of Qiming Venture Capital, said that after the epidemic, China’s medical service system, public health service system, and new drug research and development will be promising.

As an investment institution, you can support innovative companies by investing to participate in this progress.

  On the first day (February 10), Songhe Capital released recruitment information and planned to recruit investors with collective professional medical and health 杭州桑拿网 background, covering positions from investment director to partner.

  In addition to online medical care, 200 million students are attending classes at home, which has led to the outbreak of online education. The traffic of online education companies is estimated to have an explosive growth.

  Taking the homework gang of the free live broadcast class on February 3 as an example, in just 3 days, the number of people participating in the free live broadcast course nationwide exceeded 10 million.

  According to the help of the homework, the morning of the 8th day (February 10), the number exceeded 20 million, which is the highest user index in the history of the homework helper and the highest ever record of online education live classes.

  On average, the capital market is also very crazy. In June of this year, the GSX 杭州桑拿网 listed on the US stock market (GSX) has soared by more than 431%.

  Since 2015, 130,000 companies have been established in the field of online education in China. In 2019 alone, more than 60,000 online education-related companies have been set up, and investment institutions have also poured in.

  The same explosive growth has also occurred in fresh online e-commerce, far beyond the office and other online fields, and venture capital companies that have been deployed in advance are undoubtedly the biggest winners.

Where the traffic gathers, all are the outlets for capital chasing. In the future, capital will continue to flood into industries that have exploded against the trend.

AVIC (002179) 2019 Interim Report Review: Reversed and Reconfirmed Results Meet Expectations

AVIC (002179) 2019 Interim Report Review: Reversed and Reconfirmed Results Meet Expectations

Investment Highlights The company released its 2019 Interim Report: Revenue 45.

97 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.

23%; net profit attributable to mother 5.

73 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.

13%; net profit after deduction 5

60 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.

87%; non-recurring gains and losses 0.

1.3 billion, including 0 government subsidies.

1.1 billion.

Orders in the defense and civilian products markets continued to grow rapidly, and revenues increased simultaneously.

2019Q1 realized revenue and net profit attributable to mothers21.


3.3 billion, an increase of 45 each year.

95%, 39.

14%; Revenue and net profit attributable to mothers in the second quarter of 201924.

41, 3.

4 billion, an increase of 15 each year.

80%, 14.

14%; an increase of 13 from the previous month.

19%, 46.


The average revenue of Q2 and the net profit attributable to mothers hit a record high. The quarterly growth rate Q1 has declined. The high base in Q2 2018 is an important factor.

From 2013 to 2016, the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to mothers increased at a rate of more than 20% simultaneously.

Affected by factors such as the military reform in 2017, the company’s net profit growth rate dropped to more than 10%; in 2018, it slowly recovered, gradually revenue, and performance growth recovered to more than 15%; in the first quarter of 2019, bothAchieved a growth of more than 20%, and the transformation trend was reconfirmed.

Since 2017, the company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin have increased, but the amplitude trend has slowed down. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of 2019H1 are 33.

25% and 13.

44%, it is estimated that 杭州桑拿 the whole year of 2018 has picked up.

The parent company’s 2019H1 revenue is 36.

37 trillion, accounting for 79 of the total revenue of the consolidated statement.

12%, an annual increase of 31.

48%; net profit 5.

43 trillion, accounting for 87 of the net profit of the consolidated statement.

86%, an increase of 20 per year.

twenty four%.

The revenue growth rate is higher than the consolidated statement, and the net profit growth rate exceeds the consolidated statement, which is mainly due to the decline in the parent company’s gross profit margin and the continuous increase in R & D expenditure.

Earnings forecasts and investment advice.

In the next few years, the company will make great efforts to develop military and civilian products with huge growth potential.

We adjust our profit forecast for the company and expect the company’s net profit for 2019-202111.95, 14.

72, 17.

70 ppm, corresponding to the closing price of PE on August 23 is 35/28/24 times.

The company issued 1.3 billion convertible bonds in 2018. If all conversions are considered, the share capital will be increased.

4.2 billion shares, with a total equity conversion of 10.

7 billion shares, corresponding to 36/30/25 times the PE, maintaining the level of “prudent increase”.

Risk warning: revenue recognition lags behind order growth; gross profit margin restructuring; weak capacity organization, and performance releases fall short of expectations.